Amazing day at Candidates Tournament

Kramnik leads!

Candidates pairings are up!

The eight-player, fourteen round Candidates tournament in London will determine the player to challenge Vishy Anand for the World Championship later this year.  Play begins March 15th: Magnus Carlsen vs. seven Russian-speakers. I don't have fears of a repeat of Curaçao 1962—the players are honorable sportsmen—but I like the chances of the former Soviet field.  Magnus is a marked man, and everyone will have a little something special for him.

+4 would be a very good score; +3 might be sufficient.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope handicapping (based on age and recent form).

Gelfand, Ivanchuk, Svidler: (each) 4% chance of winning
Radjabov & Grischuk: (each) 10% chance of winning
Aronian: 12% chance of winning
Kramnik: 20% chance of winning
Carlsen: 36% chance of winning