Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Candidates pairings are up!

The eight-player, fourteen round Candidates tournament in London will determine the player to challenge Vishy Anand for the World Championship later this year.  Play begins March 15th: Magnus Carlsen vs. seven Russian-speakers. I don't have fears of a repeat of Curaçao 1962the players are honorable sportsmenbut I like the chances of the former Soviet field.  Magnus is a marked man, and everyone will have a little something special for him.

+4 would be a very good score; +3 might be sufficient.

Here's my back-of-the-envelope handicapping (based on age and recent form).

Gelfand, Ivanchuk, Svidler: (each) 4% chance of winning
Radjabov & Grischuk: (each) 10% chance of winning
Aronian: 12% chance of winning
Kramnik: 20% chance of winning
Carlsen: 36% chance of winning


Frederick Rhine said...

Of course Carlsen will win. And yes, I will be happy to bet you on that, which according to your predictions should be a very favorable bet for you.

Bill Brock said...

No question about who the best player in the world is, but a 14-round eight-player event is too random.

Bill Brock said...

In retrospect, not bad handicapping....