The eight-player, fourteen round Candidates tournament in London will determine the player to challenge Vishy Anand for the World Championship later this year. Play begins March 15th: Magnus Carlsen vs. seven Russian-speakers. I don't have fears of a repeat of Curaçao 1962—the players are honorable sportsmen—but I like the chances of the former Soviet field. Magnus is a marked man, and everyone will have a little something special for him.
+4 would be a very good score; +3 might be sufficient.
Here's my back-of-the-envelope handicapping (based on age and recent form).
Gelfand, Ivanchuk, Svidler: (each) 4% chance of winning
Radjabov & Grischuk: (each) 10% chance of winning
Aronian: 12% chance of winning
Kramnik: 20% chance of winning
Carlsen: 36% chance of winning
+4 would be a very good score; +3 might be sufficient.
Here's my back-of-the-envelope handicapping (based on age and recent form).
Gelfand, Ivanchuk, Svidler: (each) 4% chance of winning
Radjabov & Grischuk: (each) 10% chance of winning
Aronian: 12% chance of winning
Kramnik: 20% chance of winning
Carlsen: 36% chance of winning
3 comments:
Of course Carlsen will win. And yes, I will be happy to bet you on that, which according to your predictions should be a very favorable bet for you.
No question about who the best player in the world is, but a 14-round eight-player event is too random.
In retrospect, not bad handicapping....
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